Jordan Peele’s Us eyes $40 million opening, should top Get Out at box office

Jordan Peele’s directorial debut caused such a critical and popular stir that every project he’s followed it with has carried with it expectations of greatness — and none more so than Us.

The Get Out writer/director’s second feature has been tantalizing horror fans with mysterious, doppelganger-laden trailers while Peele fans have had their hands full juggling The Twilight Zone news, Toy Story 4 voicework, and Weird City episodes. But thanks to new box office predictions, it seems Us will make a bigger splash than any of them — including its acclaimed predecessor.

According to Deadline, Us is currently tracking for a $35-40M opening weekend. And that’s on the low side, since the world has not yet been subjected to the hype that the film’s SXSW premiere could generate and Hollywood consistently underestimates performances that rely on female or POC demographics. Even with the bare minimum estimate coming true, Us would surpass Get Out’s $33.3M opening — but it has the potential to best Peele’s Academy Award-winning first film by at least $7M and maybe even double-digits.

Get Out had a great opening weekend, but its staying power made it a bona fide box office hit. Assuming the Lupita Nyong’o, Winston Duke, and Elisabeth Moss-starring Us has similar power to stick in the minds of moviegoers, it could replicate Get Out’s feat and take its modest opening to a $176M U.S. release. The only main hiccup in that plan is Captain Marvel, which opens three weeks before Us and could still be reigning over the box office. Those films could certainly attract different audiences, of course, though genre fans will obviously want to see both.

That said, reactions from SXSW (which will come after its March 8 premiere), will be a bellwether for Us — especially since last year’s fest saw A Quiet Place come out of nowhere to blow the socks off of springtime horror fans.

Us will invade theaters on March 22.